Daily Market Commentary for January 22, 2009 from Millennium-Traders.Com

Microsoft missed earnings estimate and announced job cuts of 5000 employees over the next 18 months and will release 1800 employees immediately. (read more)

Economic data released today:

Housing Starts:
U.S. December Housing Starts fell 15.5% to 550,000 compared to consensus of a drop by 4.0%; Building Permits fell 10.7% to 549,000 rate in December; November Housing Starts revised to drop by 15.1% from drop by 18.9%.

Jobless Claims:
U.S. Jobless Claims for week of January 17 rose 62K to 589K compared to survey of an increase by 26K; U.S. Continuing Claims for week of January 10 rose 97K to 4,607,000; U.S. Jobless Claims Revised for week of January 10 to 527K from 524K; U.S. Jobless Claims match highest level since November 1982.

At the NYSE closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange, here is how the major world indices and major U.S. stock indices ended the trading session on the world markets as well as the emerging markets including the stock market closing bell price:
DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) triple digit loss of 105.30 points to end the trading session at 8,122.80
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) triple digit loss of 102.31 points to end the trading session at 5,171.68
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) loss of 41.58 points to end the trading session at 1,465.49
S&P 500 (SPX) loss of 12.74 points to end the trading session at 827.50
FTSE All-World Index data excluding U.S. (AW01UK) loss of 1.16 points to end the trading session at 134.73
FTSE RAFI 1000 loss of 61.63 points to end the trading session at 3,127.67
BEL 20 (BEL20) gain of 10.41 points to end the trading session at 1,805.38
CAC 40 (CAC40) loss of 35.95 points to end the trading session at 2,869.62
FTSE100 (UKX100) loss of 7.65 points to end the trading session at 4,052.23
NIKKEI 225 (NIK/O) triple digit gain of 150.10 points at the end the trading session at 8,051.74

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 662, declined stock prices 2,418, unchanged stock prices 92, stock prices hitting new highs 3 and stock prices hitting new lows 78. NYSE quotes for volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the New York Stock Exchange stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: BB&T Corporation (NYSE: BBT) stock price shed 0.05 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $22.30, low on the trading session $17.56, with a closing stock price at $19.65; ITT Educational Services Incorporated (NYSE: ESI) stock price gained 11.61 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $130.76, low on the trading session $120.72, with a closing stock price at $126.16; Potash Corporation Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) stock price gained 4.02 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $74.04, low on the trading session $66.12, with a closing stock price at $73.19; Amdocs Limited (NYSE: DOX) stock price shed 2.10 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $16.73, low on the trading session $14.61, with a closing stock price at $16.53; Sherwin Williams Company (NYSE: SHW ) stock price shed 7.22 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $49.60, low on the trading session $46.95, with a closing stock price at $48.20; ProShares Ultrashort Real Estate (NYSE: SRS) stock price gained 5.17 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $64.96, low on the trading session $57.47, with a closing stock price at $62.76; Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation (NYSE: PVH) stock price shed 0.77 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $18.68, low on the trading session $17.16, with a closing stock price at $18.04; AFLAC Corporation (NYSE: AFL) stock price shed 13.37 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $33.50, low on the trading session $22.08, with a closing stock price at $22.90; State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT) stock price gained 3.90 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $21.95, low on the trading session $16.84, with a closing stock price at $20.97; Direxion Financial Bear (NYSE: FAZ) stock price gained 9.00 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $70.22, low on the trading session $58.67, with a closing stock price at $66.20; ProShares Ultrashort Financials (NYSE: SKF) stock price gained 15.26 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $175.39, low on the trading session $154.55, with a closing stock price at $167.66; CME Group Incorporated (NYSE: CME) stock price shed 11.58 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $177.56, low on the trading session $157.10, with a closing stock price at $169.00; ProShares Ultrashort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS) stock price gained 2.18 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $84.84, low on the trading session $79.40, with a closing stock price at $81.61.

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 671, declined stock prices 2,084, unchanged stock prices 138, stock prices hitting new highs 6 and stock prices hitting new lows 123. NASDAQ quotes, volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the NASDAQ stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: FS Network Incorporated (NasdaqGS: FFIV) stock price gained 1.00 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $23.44, low on the trading session $22.10, with a closing stock price at $23.00.

Market trends on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 195, declined stock prices 362, unchanged stock prices 58, stock prices hitting new highs 1 and stock prices hitting new lows 5.

Chicago Board of Trade Futures Market for the day, at time of this posting:
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Mar 09: End of trading session price 825.50; Change for the trading session -11.25
E-mini NASDAQ-100 (NQ) Mar 09: End of trading session price 1,172.50; Change for the trading session -9.00
E-mini DOW $5 (YM) Mar 09: End of trading session price 8,089; Change for the trading session -84
E-mini S&P MidCap 400 (MF) Mar 09: End of trading session price 497.30; Change for the trading session -8.00
E-mini S&P Small Cap 600 (HS) Mar 09: End of trading session price 7,870; Change for the trading session -140

World Currencies for the Forex Market, for Forex Trading by active Forex Traders, at time of this posting:
Euro 0.7696 to U.S. Dollars 1.2994
Japanese Yen 88.780 to U.S. Dollars 0.0113
British Pound 0.7211 to U.S. Dollars 1.3868
Canadian Dollar 1.2531 to U.S. Dollars 0.7980
Swiss Franc 1.1538 to U.S. Dollars 0.8667

COMMODITY MARKETS:

Energy Sector - Nymex:
Light Crude (March 09) gained $0.12 on the trading session for a closing price of $43.67 per barrel ($US per barrel)
Heating Oil (March 09) shed $0.03 on the trading session for a closing price of $1.35 a gallon ($US per gallon)
Natural Gas (March 09) shed $0.09 on the trading session for a closing price of $4.64 per million BTU ($US per mmbtu.)
Unleaded Gas (February 09) shed $0.08 on the trading session for a closing price of $1.09 a gallon ($US per gallon)

Metals Markets - Comex:
Gold (February 09) gained $9.20 on the trading session for a closing price of $859.30 ($US per Troy ounce)
Silver (March 09) gained $0.04 on the trading session for a closing price of $11.37 ($US per Troy ounce)
Platinum (April 09) gained $7.30 on the trading session for a closing price of $934.90 ($US per Troy ounce)
Copper (March 09) shed $0.04 on the trading session for a closing price of $1.40 ($US per pound)

Livestock and Meat Markets - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (cents per lb.):
Lean Hogs (April 09) gained 0.05 on the trading session for a closing price of 65.40
Pork Bellies (February 09) no change on the trading session for a closing price of 82.00
Live Cattle (April 09) gained 0.20 on the trading session for a closing price of 85.40
Feeder Cattle (March 09) gained 0.95 on the trading session for a closing price of 92.30

Other Commodities - Chicago Board of Trade (cents per bushel):
Corn (March 09) shed 2.75 on the trading session for a closing price of 387.50
Soybeans (March 09) shed 8.50 on the trading session for a closing price of 1,012.00

BOND MARKET:

2 year Bond Closing price 100 8/32, change 2/32, Yield 0.74, Yield change -0.03
5 year Bond closing price of 99 14/32, change -1/32, Yield 1.61, Yield change 0.00
10 year Bond closing price 109 27/32, change -24/32, Yield 2.60, Yield change 0.08
30 year Bond closing price 123 14/32, change -2 7/32, Yield 3.25, Yield change 0.10

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Forex Analysis - Daily

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• CPI and Housing data mixed, largely ignored
• FOMC cuts by 75 BP, USD drops like a stone
• Equities rally but more USD losses to come

Overnight Preview

• Look for equities and Oil to rally in Asia
• Majors likely to advance more overnight

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• All Day ALL OPEC Meeting
• 8:30am USD Current Account
• 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories

Summary
The USD started a bit better overnight but began to fall off as traders trimmed long positions ahead of today’s economic news. This morning’s CPI and Housing data was mixed for traders as lower CPI was offset by weaker housing data; the majors began a steady climb into the FOMC rate announcement which of course was the big news of the day. In a surprise move, the FOMC voted unanimously to cut rates a larger than expected 75 BP putting the FF rate at .25% and announcing to the world that the USD is now the cheapest currency on the planet. Traders responded by dumping Dollars against everybody in what is sure to become common practice in the year ahead. In the move to quantitative easing, similar to what the BOJ announced in the 1990’s, the FED has made the Greenback to worlds lowest yielding currency period. Although equities are rallying and like the positive approach to the cost of money, the resulting inflation will certainly drive Gold, Oil and Commodities pricing higher during the next year. Traders note that the resulting loss of prestige for holding USD will likely cause a rise in EURO and GBP back to levels seen prior to the financial crisis began. GBP rallied sharply on the news but so far high prints are still below previous resistance as cross-spreaders remain fixed on record high prices for EURO/GBP; highs at 1.5511 likely to fall the next few days. EURO also rallied after retreating from the 100 day MA at 1.3770 area; high prints at 1.3993 area just shy of technical resistance but the resulting rally will likely see higher prices. USD/JPY remained inside range and the only pair that didn’t respond more aggressively; low prints in the rate at 89.09 but traders note bids on dips suggesting that the rate may be ready for a technical bounce although traders remain optimistic that further losses may be in the works without BOJ intervention. USD/CHF broke through key support at the 1.1420/30 level and ran for the boarder; low prints at 1.1262 with more on the way most likely. USD/CAD also slipping aggressively as USD melts down elsewhere dropping to a low print at 1.2012 with more on the way. Heading into press time the majors are extending their highs again and most likely will see follow-on selling of USD overnight. In my view, the Greenback has topped for sure at this point and traders need to be positioned for further losses in the coming months. Any rallies in the USD most likely will be selling opportunities and quite possibly history will show that today was the start of the greatest slide in USD value in history. Look for further forex trading overnight.

GBP USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5700/10
Resistance 2: 1.5650
Resistance 1: 1.5610/20
Latest New York: 1.5546
Support 1: 1.4850
Support 2: 1.4740
Support 3: 1.4680

Comments
Two-way technical trade gives way to short covering and one-way action; lots of spillover from EURO no doubt. Lows holding at 1.5200/10 area. Bounce off early weakness suggests buyers are willing on dips but they are meeting willing sellers on the recovery traders say; aggressive traders can buy the next dip in my view. Stops around the 1.5200 area and higher cleared so be ready for whipsaw. Cross-spreaders likely keeping pressure on as GBP/EURO cross holds near lifetime high. Although today was a strong rally; failure at next resistance at 1.5550 area still a caution. Traders note solid two-way action. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate
6:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales

EURO USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.4200/10
Resistance 2: 1.4150
Resistance 1: 1.4080
Latest New York: 1.4037
Support 1: 1.3360
Support 2: 1.3280
Support 3: 1.3200

Comments
Rate scores another new high after rate announcement and finds resistance at previous breakdown area. Technical traders will be looking for a test of the 200 day MA near-term; follow-on buying overnight likely. Sellers may be taking a stand above 1.3700 but they will need to see a move lower right away to stay short. Traders note lots of aggressive active buying. Stops building in size over the 1.3750 area cleared. Traders note some stops within range overnight suggesting longs are late or nervous. Correction is likely. Likely bulls will lighten up but will need to see failure at 1.4100 area first I think.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
5:00am EUR CPI y/y
5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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